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Old 13th Sep 2004, 11:46   #1
Wavid
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Default General Election 2005?

So, the next General Election is likely to be next spring. It looks likely that Tony will still be in charge, despite Mr Self's predictions, and he seems to be putting together a crack squad to win the election. Well, alright, he's got Alan Milburn...

And the Tories seem to be responding, by bringing back the big guns. Well, alright, John Redwood.

The same old people seem to be turning up. Everytime the Conservatives threaten to change, they end up bringing back someone from the old guard. I expect Ken Clarke to be wheeled out at some point soon...

So, bit of a ramble this already. But two things stand out for possible discussion: how do we think the election is going to go next year? and are the likes of Redwood and Milburn the sort to get people out of their homes to vote?
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Old 13th Sep 2004, 14:51   #2
NottyImp
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Labour win with a reduced majority, maybe around the 100 mark. Lower turn-out than last time.
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Old 13th Sep 2004, 15:32   #3
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Labour is bound to get in again. Unfortunately. The tories have gone too right wing even for their traditional support, the Hate Mail reading, property-owninig classes. The lib dems have some great ideas but aren't seen as a credible force for government. And everybody else in Britain will be glad to get back their deposit. I know I should vote to stop the BNP getting more power (at least register) but it does seem depressingly pointless. And the idea of spoiling my ballot paper seems a waste as well. Non-votes don't really make a difference. They are just subtracted from the turnout figures and are rapidly forgotten.

You can see why people lose interest in politics.
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Old 13th Sep 2004, 15:51   #4
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Bak's right. There is no opposition. But voting might not be quite so pointless. It depends where you live.

Backbenchers have backed so far backed Blair - because despite his wider unpopularity - he's their best ticket to re-election. Mostly they're a spineless lot who can't face going back to their day jobs.

But in this election that might make things interesting. The left electorate are thoroughly browned off after Iraq. My MP supported Iraq vocally and earned himself a minor ministry post as a reward. But it'll take only a 3.8% swing for him to lose, so at the next election he's almost certainly out - as his support for the war made him incredibly unpopular locally.

A lot of backbenchers are going to be facing a similar maths soon. And the more intelligent of them might start thinking, the only way I'll save my sorry ass is if I start publicly repenting and becoming vocally anti-Blair. Which might make things interesting.

Who's your MP, Bak? Is it still the terminally useless Diane Abbot?
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Old 13th Sep 2004, 16:00   #5
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My positives on the inevitable New Labour victory are essentially negatives:

1. it'll mean the Tories have failed again (which is funny, come on)
2. it'll be the end of Howard
3. it'll be Tony's last term as PM

Not good when these sorts of things are the only silver linings, is it?
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Old 13th Sep 2004, 21:18   #6
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Yes indeed Diane must-be-election-time-soon-better-actually-put-in-an-appearance-in-my-constituency-and-woo-the-voters-kiss-some-babies-and-mutter-about-the-government Abbott, who has about as much chance of losing Hackney as IDS has of becoming a succesful novelist.

As I hinted before I'm not currently registered for largely financial reasons anyway and I'm not sure using my democratic right to fight the inevitable is worth the heavy council tax price. I know people have fought wars to give me a voice and whatnot and if I lived somewhere where I could make a difference then may be it would be worth it but I don't.

Is this the dreaded apathy that everybody has been blaming for everything from obesity to Pop Idle? Probably. But is it my fault if we have no real opposition, and parties that sometimes look so similar that it's difficult to remember who's supposed to be who, where the principal role of government is to blame the people who came before and then carry on with their policies? I used to vote Labour. Can you tell?! No bitterness or disappointment here!
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Old 27th Sep 2004, 13:39   #7
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Quote:
A lot of backbenchers are going to be facing a similar maths soon. And the more intelligent of them might start thinking, the only way I'll save my sorry ass is if I start publicly repenting and becoming vocally anti-Blair. Which might make things interesting.
Yes, it'll make things interesting until they get elected, whereupon they'll be back toe-ing the party line. And that, for me, sums up British (world) politics. Politicians are effectively unnaccountable.
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